How are you at predicting things? If you’re like most of us, you might be OK at predicting certain things but fail miserably at others. For example, you might do better than average at predicting the score of the football match, but you can’t judge which horse will win the race. On the other hand, if you’re one of those rare folks with a natural affinity, you might be a superforecaster.
In 2011, IARPA – the US intelligence community’s equivalent to DARPA – launched a massive competition to identify cutting-edge methods to forecast geopolitical events. Four years, 500 questions, and over a million forecasts later, the Good Judgment Project (GJP) – led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania – emerged as the undisputed victor in the tournament. GJP’s forecasts were so accurate that they even outperformed intelligence analysts with access to classified data.
By identifying superforecasters and then crowd sourcing what these remarkable people anticipate it’s possible to make incredibly accurate predictions about the future. Test your own abilities at the link above.
Quirks and Curiosities 